Apple in 2013 won’t be Sony
For a fee, Forrester Research will tell you their predictions of Apple’s product strategy through 2013, including the kinds of products they believe Apple will create and how they tie together into a coherent vision. $279 U.S. buys you a PDF containing their analysis of Apple’s drive to become “the hub of the digital home”, the “American Sony”.
What kind of products do they envision?
Among the new products Forrester predicts Apple will create are wall-mountable digital picture frames with small high-definition screens and speakers that wirelessly play media, including photos, videos and music, stored on a computer elsewhere in the home.
— Wall Street Journal, May 22, 2008
Digital picture frames?
For the bedroom, Forrester envisions an Apple “clock radio” that pipes in music and other media across a home network.
— Wall Street Journal, May 22, 2008
Clock radios?
Sounds like someone thought “what would Apple do if Apple were Sony”, and took it from there:
Well, Sony makes clock radios, so what value-added would Apple bring there? Easy! Media + wi-fi. And digital picture frames, no question—just a small flatscreen and a wi-fi chip and you’re good. Wait, why not video, too? It will need speakers…
If those predictions fairly represent the quality of Forrester’s analysis, save your 279 bucks. Apple isn’t Sony, and you can’t extrapolate what Apple will be creating in 2013 by imagining Sony with wi-fi and media added. Sony doesn’t do software; Apple does. Software changes things, and software elegantly integrated with hardware changes things a lot.
If you want to imagine Apple products in 2013, start with processors that are faster, cheaper, smaller, and cooler than those we have today, then seat them in devices that are wirelessly networked, auto-discovering, and auto-configuring. Now—and this is the important part—imagine real-world problems these devices might solve so well that you’d happily pay a premium for. Those are the products Apple will be building.
It’s possible that Apple might build simple products like clock radios and digital picture frames, but like the iPod Hi-Fi, they would be curiosities rather than cutting-edge. Handy? Perhaps, but hardly worthy of inclusion in a forward-looking product strategy analysis.
And then there’s the truly strange:
Forrester also thinks Apple could extend into the home the technical assistance currently offered by “Genius Bar” personnel in Apple retail stores. Apple in-home installation services will become especially important as its array of products for the home grows.
— Wall Street Journal, May 22, 2008
Yeah, imagine an Apple Genius talking to you over video chat: “Ma’am, I can’t quite see the connectors. Can you shine a little more light back there, and move the camera in just a bit closer?”